When people think of design, most believe it is about problem solving. Even the more expressive forms of design are about solving aesthetic problems. Faced with huge challenges such as overpopulation, water shortages, and climate change, designers feel an overpowering urge to work together to fix them, as though they can be broken down, quantified, and solved. Design’s inherent optimism leaves no alternative but it is becoming clear that many of the challenges we face today are unfixable and that the only way to overcome them is by changing our values, beliefs, attitudes, and behavior. Although essential most of the time, design’s inbuilt optimism can greatly complicate things, first, as a form of denial that the problems we face are more serious than they appear, and second, by channeling energy and resources into fiddling with the world out there rather than the ideas and attitudes inside our heads that shape the world out there.
speculated everything,
anthony dunne & fiona raby
sanne besselink
Speculative design is the process of addressing big societal issues with design processes and systems.
- How should design impact the entire world?
How can we design for a healthier ecosystem?
- What can we do to influence future cultures?
- How can future technologies impact our products and services—and vice versa?
- What don’t we want to see from the future?
The sweeping dunes of the Frisian Islands, the seaside resorts of Zeeland, and the bustling port of Rotterdam – the largest harbour in Europe, may one day be returned to the sea, say scientists, if climate change cannot be halted.
The highly fertile soil reclaimed from seas or lakes since the 14th century transformed the outline of the Netherlands, and though it makes up just 17% of our land mass, it is now among the most densely populated ground in the country.
Today, almost half of the Netherlands’ 17 million inhabitants live along its 350km coast or in regions which are below sea level. But the country we know today has been artificially held together for centuries by dikes, pumps and polders, and sea levels – now rising at an average of about 3mm a year – risk overwhelming our water defences. If this happens, the government’s Delta Programme estimate that 60% of the country could be flooded.
Subsidence, thought to be as much as 5mm per year in some areas, is happening even faster than sea-level rise in the Netherlands, pushing the country even further below sea level. A temperature rise of 2 degrees and record-breaking summers, has lowered groundwater levels and drained the peat. This not only causes subsidence, but as the peat oxidises, increases our CO2 output.
Why is the sea level rising? Since industrialisation, gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have been released in huge volumes into the atmosphere. These gases have an insulating effect on our planet, trapping heat like a greenhouse. Fossil fuel combustion is by far the biggest culprit, while meat farming accounts for an estimated 14.5% of all global greenhouse emissions.
With so much heat caged within our atmosphere, ice sheets and glaciers are now melting, increasing global sea levels by an average of 7.6cm between 1992 and 2015 (NASA). Less ice means a darker landscape, more prone to absorbing heat, while the thermal expansion caused by the warming of the sea means the water needs ever more space. The chain reaction is hard to halt, and it is easy to see why scientists believe global warming is accelerating and likely to rocket after 2050.
Climate scientist Dewi le Bars is getting used to media requests now that climate change is finally receiving the attention it deserves, especially in a country which risks being so acutely affected.
‘We know it’s rising, we know it’s going to accelerate, but how much is difficult [to say]. But still there are decisions that need to be made. So that’s why there needs to be a very good discussion between the climate scientists and the engineers, so that when we give a range of the possible futures, they actually understand what we mean by these uncertainties.’
The graph shows potential sea level change through 2100. Three sea level rise scenarios were developed for the region surrounding the LA-1. The first scenario shows relative sea level rise continuing to rise at its current rate of 9.2 mm per year through the end of the century. The second scenario shows the 20th century rate increasing by 2 mm per year (11.2 mm per year), starting around 2008.
so it is vital in our small country that the systems of the delta works work perfectly every day.
If the delta works had not been there, more than 60 percent of our country would already be under water. But because of climate change, the ice from antartica and greenland is melting and because the earth is warming up, it causes the water to expand, so that there is more and more water on the earth.
n the Netherlands we make land of water, cultivate it and then struggle to keep it dry. A rare tradition from the point of view of climate adaptation. After all, half of our country consists of polders (approximately 3,500). We have to pump it dry daily. Why not build directly on the water instead of first creating land? And why want to cultivate low-lying land in polders of reclaimed land (x meters below NAP) with great efforts to keep it dry? In the meantime, there are the necessary construction sites with increasing problems around groundwater levels and subsidence, and yet we continue to do so, it seems.
Due to climate change, we are more often confronted with flooding (downpours, flood risk), long-term drought and heat stress. The consequences of this include land subsidence and less biodiversity. With floating homes on the water, you have far less of those problems. Floating buildings are flexible and movable, have less construction nuisance (on location) and are more sustainable. According to experts, a floating foundation will last 100 years.
In addition, building on the water can increase water quality thanks to the growth of plants on the foundation in the water. We can also take advantage of ventilation (wind) on the water. We also do not have to drill long pipes in the ground for heat / cold storage, but we can immediately use the thermal quality of the water.
Functions other than living are also conceivable. There is a floating airport in Japan (Kansai International Airport, Osaka). Maybe an idea for Lelystad in the IJsselmeer? And in our own Aalsmeer is a prototype of a floating greenhouse (2005, Dura Vermeer). With building on the water, we do not suffer from sea level rise and we create double use of space. For example, no additional water collection is required. Buildings on the water are flexible (movable), offer options for densification without expensive land use ((90 of the 100 largest cities in the world are situated on the water, so the alternative is obvious) and there are more sustainable transport options over water.
Shouldn't we change our Dutch tradition of fighting against water to living with and on the water? There are necessary international examples, partly with Dutch input. For inspiration I can refer to the book FLOAT (Flexible Land on Aquatic Territory). Time to let our Dutch engineers play a pioneering role in their own country.
dubai's palm island is a huge project with millions of rocks, sand and dollars. It was a huge taks for the engeneers to encounter the sealevel and storms.